13News Now reporter Alex Littlehales sat down with Larry Sabato, a political expert at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

The conversation touched on President Donald Trump’s 100 days, calls for lieutenant governor candidate John Reid to exit the November race, and more.

The entries have been revised for better readability and clarity. The questions are highlighted in bold.


Littlehales:


We’ve recently passed the initial 100-day mark of the Trump administration.


What impact will this have on the gubernatorial elections in November? Given that Virginia is likely to be among just two states, many individuals may view this as an indicator for the upcoming congressional midterm elections.

On Saturday, the initial 100 days haven’t improved Trump’s public perception; that much is clear. According to poll averages—at least—he has never reached above 50% in either category, which is unheard of since tracking began in the 1930s. This scenario has never occurred before, yet his backing remains steadfastly strong. Thus, although his base level of support isn’t particularly wide, it is notably stable. Starting around 49%, slightly under half, his current approval rating hovers near the low 40s, which is concerning. However, several presidents have dipped well beneath these levels—Joe Biden provides an apt illustration with ratings plummeting into the 30s and even lower, down to the 20s.

Therefore, one must consider each state individually, and regarding Virginia specifically, the state has never embraced Donald Trump. In both 2016 and 2020, he suffered losses, with his defeat being twice as significant during the latter election. Additionally, he was unsuccessful in securing victory when running once more in 2024; however, Kamala Harris managed to win Virginia by an even larger margin compared to her predecessor, Hillary Clinton. Consequently, Trump does not appear to provide much benefit to Republicans in upcoming elections, perhaps in any future ones either. Is he likely to become a major liability? It’s not certain. The economic situation plays a crucial role—if things go well economically speaking, which currently they seem to hover somewhere uncertain between potential downturns into recession or upturns towards recovery—we can’t yet determine our trajectory clearly enough.

He can be less of a factor if conditions nationally and internationally, domestically, particularly on the economy, are relatively good. That’s what Republicans have to hope for. They’re not going to get a lot of positive reinforcement from Donald Trump. He can hurt them much more easily than he can help them.


Littlehales: What is the [Democratic] messaging when they’re talking about Republican candidates Winsome Sears, John Reid and Jason Miyares? And how will the candidates themselves respond?

Sabato: Well, all three of them are pro-Trump, but they can’t get away from that. They have records of supporting Trump, and they wouldn’t want to come across as anti-Trump because they lose some of their base. So their dilemma is holding their base, which is very pro-Trump, and at the same time reaching out to independents who may not like Trump, but don’t base their vote on Trump. And that’s not easy to do, but it’s not impossible either.

What strategy might they use? I believe they’ll turn to their governor, whose approval rating remains above 50% according to recent polls. Despite having a tough month, his numbers remain strong at over 50%. Therefore, instead of focusing on Trump, they’ll emphasize Youngkin’s role. While the Democrats plan to discuss both figures, they will concentrate primarily on Trump but won’t spare criticism for Youngkin either.

Youngkin has opened the door to attacks on him, and governors at the end of their terms are vulnerable, at least in Virginia, where you only have one term.


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Littlehales: Shall we discuss that particular month you mentioned? With all the reports circulating now, what do you make of Governor Youngkin’s motivation behind calling John Reid? Was it possibly just a misstep by his team? And considering recent events, like his PAC director stepping down, could these issues affect their capacity to put together a strong campaign ticket?

Sabato: Asking John Reid to drop out was one of the dumbest things that I’ve seen Youngkin do in his time on the public stage, which hasn’t been that long. That was really stupid. And it’s incredible that some of his advisors, at least, didn’t think of the downsides of doing that because it was a fait accompli. Reid was the lieutenant governor nominee. Why would anybody drop out at that point? Because that would be the end of the political career for that individual.

Whereas if you stay on the ballot, you always have a chance of coming back and winning. So, that was very poorly done in every respect, and there are hangover effects for Youngkin. It’s reduced his influence within the Republican Party. It’s given him a real black mark if he wants to run for president, which some people say he does in 2028. It wasn’t a good month for it.

Given that we’re still in May and the election isn’t until November, numerous events could transpire between now and then—even prior to when early voting begins in late September. Therefore, I doubt this specific issue will dominate voter concerns. Thus, although the Republican Party has the potential to rebound from this situation, clearly, it’s an outcome they’d rather have avoided.


Another contender, [John Curran], has joined the race and is currently attempting to organize a write-in campaign. Should we pay attention to this development?

Saturday: This isn’t particularly beneficial for the GOP. Internal divisions within your party are never ideal. However, I believe this rift isn’t too significant. In fact, I’ve researched write-in candidates from the latter part of the 20th century up until now, and most times these efforts succeeded only when running for lesser positions like those in Congress or locally. Yet, such attempts generally end in failure, which seems likely here as well. Does that imply Republicans should disregard him entirely? Not really, since he’ll get some press coverage and undoubtedly criticize the Republican Party. His actions may sway individuals disillusioned with Youngkin’s approach or perhaps upset over Trump’s tariff policies.

This isn’t beneficial, but I don’t believe it causes significant harm either.


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In the statewide elections, both the 757 region and the broader Hampton Roads area currently feature several contenders. Among them are Aaron Rouse running for lieutenant governor and Jay Jones returning as a candidate for attorney general after stepping away from politics momentarily. Are these politicians well-known across the state, or do most people recognize them mainly within Coastal Virginia?

Saturday: I don’t believe any of those Democratic contenders are widely recognized throughout the state. What makes Youngkin’s attack on Reid unusual is that instead of harming Reid, it backfired on Youngkin. As a result, Reid gained from being entirely unrecognized outside the Richmond region and has since become known statewide.

As far as Aaron Rouse in the lieutenant governor’s race and Jay Jones in the attorney general’s race, they’re both in the hunt. For lieutenant governor, I talked to a wide variety of political people, and outside of the campaigns, the campaign people always tell you their candidate’s going to win easily. But outside the campaigns, there is nobody who understands politics who has any idea which one of these candidates is going to win. The winner could get, you know, 25, 30, 35%.

I’d say it would likely fall at the higher end of that spectrum. However, this represents only a small number of votes within a statewide primary, and participation is expected to be quite low. Since there isn’t a gubernatorial contest, only those who are highly engaged in politics will bother showing up on a warm June day to cast their ballots for positions like lieutenant governor and attorney general. That’s truly how it goes.

So the turnout’s low, which means that any of the people with regional strengths could potentially win if they can stir strong turnout in their home area. So, if Hampton Rhodes wants to have one or two people on the Democratic ticket, they’ve got Rouse and they’ve got Jones, and they could turn out in larger numbers than expected and outvote some of the other regions in Virginia. So it’ll be a regional vote. To some degree, but no, they’re both in the hunt.


Littlehales: I wanted to ask about Don Scott recently, he was just announced that he’s on the National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Board of Directors. I thought that was interesting just because you have what’s happening on the GOP side. Now you have House Speaker getting a new role. Why was he tapped?

Sabato: Virginia is actually very important to both parties this year, but especially to Democrats. They are under the gun in every way you can be. They control nothing at the national level, not the House, not the Senate, not the White House, not the Supreme Court. They want a success story. They look at New Jersey and see a mess. It’s impossible to predict the New Jersey primary.

But they look at Virginia and see a winner in Abigail Spanberger, they think she may finish strong enough to pull in the whole ticket. They also see the House of Delegates, which is currently narrowly divided in the Democratic direction, moving more Democratic, and that’s why Don Scott is on there. He’s going to help guide the expenditure of national money in the key House of Delegates races, because Democrats would like to have more than 51 seats, and they have every possibility of getting more than that.

Kamala Harris carried half a dozen Democratic districts that are currently occupied by Republicans in the House of Delegates. They already have the state Senate narrowly. But it’s not on the ballot, so they’re more or less secure in the Senate. They need to show progress in the House of Delegates, and they need to win the Governorship in particular, and it would be a great thing for them if they also carry the other two statewide races.

So that’s why you’re going to see Democrats, national Democrats putting a lot of emphasis on Virginia. This is their chance to get out of the gully they’re in. This is basement politics, and right now, Democrats are barely in the basement. So they have to show progress quickly, and they have to set up the midterm year of 2026. And that to them, to national Democrats, is what the 2025 Virginia elections are about, setting the table for Democratic wins in 2026.