According to Praful Nargund, voters who have switched from Labour to Reform are more supportive of European integration, as almost seventy-five percent favor a stronger alliance with the EU compared to the broader population.

Stringent statements and stricter regulations from the Prime Minister aim to address one of Britain’s most contentious political topics: immigration. However, beneath the surface, a different migratory choice is emerging discreetly. Amidst negotiations for a trade agreement with the U.S., officials are gearing up for their initial UK-EU summit in quite some time. The topic of youth mobility is set to be discussed and holds significant economic advantages. Yet, considering past conflicts regarding freedom of movement, the crucial query arises: How can this initiative be implemented prudently?

The cost-of-living crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the re-election of Donald Trump is pushing voters towards Europe. The government

Has just approved a trade agreement with the US

— however, in truth, the public’s favorability toward the US hasn’t just faded; it has shifted back towards the EU.

The Good Growth Foundation’s new report

reveals that Britons are more likely to view Donald Trump as a bigger threat to national security than terrorist groups – second only to Russia. In a world of shifting alliances, it’s a striking signal. As one Conservative-Labour swing voter said in focus groups: “I don’t think, really, we have as much of a special relationship with America as what we think.”

British people are more inclined to see Donald Trump as a greater risk to their nation’s safety compared to terror organizations, with Russia being the sole exception as it ranks just above him.

People seek positive connections with trustworthy individuals. This doesn’t imply they wish to return to the European Union. Instead, they desire stronger ties. This sentiment holds especially true for the voters that Labour aims to retain but also worries about potentially losing. According to our study, those who initially supported Labour in 2014 but are now considering switching their allegiance to Reform exhibit greater Europhile tendencies than the average citizen. Approximately seventy percent of these switchers favor either readmission into the EU (35%) or developing a tighter association without full membership (39%), contrasting with 33% and 34%, correspondingly, among all British citizens.

The emotional inheritance of Brexit

These voters hold significant importance. They could very likely determine whether a party ends up governing with a majority or remains in the opposition. However, the route ahead is quite limited. While this electorate recognizes the economic advantages of stronger connections with the European Union, they also bear the emotional legacy of Brexit. They continue to seek control over their affairs. Sovereignty remains a key concern for them. Additionally, they remain anxious about potential unfair treatment of Britain in any future agreements.

It is not necessarily the principle of people coming to the UK that voters resist. It is the perceived impact on an already struggling system. When we tested the public’s red lines for a deal with the EU, reinstating freedom of movement came seventh. What people are concerned about is allowing EU citizens access to public services and benefits (31 per cent said this was non-negotiable, coming second in the poll).

That’s why a Youth Mobility Scheme could work. Properly designed, such a scheme could offer the economic gains of closer EU ties without violating the public’s core worries on immigration control. Even with capped participation, limited access to public funds and surcharges, a youth mobility scheme could bring in up to £1bn in fiscal benefit each year. Much of it would be additional headroom for Rachel Reeves, giving more freedom to invest in public services and alleviate pressures from rising bills.

Labour has a rare opportunity to reframe the debate – moving beyond the binary of open versus closed borders to a smarter, more confident approach that balances economic gain with public consent. Voters want control, but they also want stability. A bold, credible plan to engage with the EU on our terms could win back their trust.


Praful Nargund is director of the Good Growth Foundation