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From the Politics Desk

, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Today’s newsletter offers an extensive look at the implications for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party following the passage of their comprehensive domestic agenda by the House. We delve into the political consequences, historical background, and future actions to be considered.


Programming note:

We’re stepping away for a few days during the holiday weekend and will return on Tuesday, May 27. Enjoy your peaceful Memorial Day!


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— Adam Wollner


Trump has history on his side with his ‘big, beautiful bill’

By Jonathan Allen

After the House passed a bill for President Donald Trump’s agenda

early Thursday morning

With just one vote, the proposal encounters additional obstacles in the Senate.

But don’t bet against it becoming law.

There’s a long history of presidents getting Congress to deliver their top legislative priority, even when other items fall by the wayside. That’s especially true when the president’s party controls both chambers, as Trump’s GOP currently does. Because of congressional rules, so-called budget reconciliation bills — like the one Trump is trying to get to his desk — only need a simple majority to pass in the Senate.

Therefore, Trump was wise to consolidate various key proposals into one comprehensive bill addressing numerous aspects of his agenda including taxes and immigration.

For Republicans who may not fully endorse all aspects of the proposal, it becomes risky to oppose a fellow party member who is now the President. In such situations, very few would choose to anger their core supporters just to thwart the initiatives of an incoming president. Should Trump fail in this endeavor, he’ll ensure his voter base identifies those legislators who abandoned him.

There could potentially be a political drawback for certain Republicans who remain aligned with Trump among the larger voting population, yet there’s nothing to gain from making him an adversary in both primary and general elections. No Republican has a chance of winning in battleground states or districts unless the party loyalists show up to support them. While Trump might exhibit a more overtly vengeful nature compared to many recent presidents, comparable pressures have consistently been present.

In 1993, with a Democratic-controlled Congress under President Bill Clinton’s leadership, their main focus was on advancing his economic recovery strategy rather than the less successful “Hillarycare” healthcare initiative. They managed to implement the budget plan, whereas Hillarycare did not succeed.

In June 2001, President George W. Bush, with a Republican Congress behind him, enacted a major tax cut on bipartisan votes in the House and Senate.

President Barack Obama’s stimulus law flew through Congress — with Democrats in control of both chambers — in February 2009. And after months of fierce debate, he managed to sign the Affordable Care Act into law in March 2010.

One significant exception occurred during Trump’s first term when the Senate – with a pivotal vote from then-Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. – defeated an attempt to dismantle Obamacare. However, Trump did secure a landmark tax bill thanks to the Republican-controlled Congress.

In early 2021, as soon as he took office, President Joe Biden received a pandemic relief package from the Democratically controlled Congress. However, much of his “Build Back Better” initiative encountered obstacles and needed to be revised and reduced before it could finally pass through.

As the midterm elections draw near, some Republicans might separate themselves from Trump’s agenda, but this shift hasn’t happened just yet. It’s likely he will ultimately endorse his “large, magnificent bill” and sign it into law.


How the Trump-backed legislation might influence the upcoming election

By Benjamin Kamisar and Alexandra Marquez

The Republicans’ large-scale bill is poised to significantly influence the upcoming contest for control of the House following the next election.

To regain control of the chamber, Democrats only require an increase of three seats next year. The GOP secured the narrowest House majority in nearly a century during the previous election. In preparation for this upcoming contest, Democrats have begun flooding the media with criticisms that target the Republicans for cutting Medicaid funds and favoring wealthy citizens.

However, Republicans believe this legislation is crucial for demonstrating to voters why they should allow their party to maintain control of both chambers of Congress for another two years, rather than facing the usual midterm losses experienced by a sitting president’s party. They view this bill as an opportunity to galvanize support from Trump backers by implementing his policies and giving pivotal state legislators concrete achievements to highlight during their campaigns.

“The American citizens expressed their will in November. Through their votes, they conveyed a clear message. This end of the political spectrum has been entrusted with authority, and our mission is to utilize it for improving their daily lives,” stated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., offered a contrasting view: “On that initial Tuesday in November when the final votes are tallied, this day could likely go down as the moment when House Republicans ceded control of the U.S. House of Representatives.”


Read more on the midterm politics of the bill →


The defectors:

Only two House Republicans, safe-seat Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio, joined every Democrat in voting against the bill, saying it will further balloon the U.S. deficit.

Although Davidson’s objection emerged unexpectedly at the final hour, Massie had for some time openly expressed his stance on the bill.

As

Scott Bland and Ben Kamisar write

Massie stands out among Republicans for having clashed with Trump several times yet managing to survive politically. The uncertainty lies in whether this friction will dissipate like previous disagreements or if Trump decides to support a primary opponent against him in 2026.

Before the vote on Thursday, Trump criticized Massie as a “showboater” who “ought to be removed from office.” This critique was something that Massie had faced before.

highlighted in donation requests

for his own campaign.

That’s an upgrade,” Massie commented regarding Trump’s threats. “Back in 2020, he wanted me expelled from the GOP, so losing a committee position isn’t as severe as getting ousted, right?

“I believe he’s exaggerating. I’m not concerned about it,” Massie went on to say.


Learn more about Massie →


➡️ Explainer:


Here’s what’s included in the extensive Trump agenda bill that House Republicans have recently approved.

, by Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong


✉️ Mailbag: The Republican Party’s major bill advances to the Senate

Thank you to all who sent us emails! This week’s reader query is as follows:

Regarding the spending bill, will it pass through the Senate? How many senators are expected to object?

It’s evident even a few hours after the House approved a substantial piece of legislation for Trump’s agenda that the Senate will not enact it in its current form.

For weeks, GOP senators

I have highlighted several issues.

With the measures assembled by their fellow Representatives in the House. This list encompasses: the effect on the U.S. deficit, reductions in Medicaid funding, elimination of incentives for clean energy through tax credits, and an increased limit for deductions related to state and local taxes.

It will be up to Senate Majority Leader John Thune to address all these matters over the next few weeks. He cannot risk losing more than three Republican votes in the process — and he has already lost some.

Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky

, firmly opposing a clause in the bill that increases the debt limit. Sen. Ron Johnson from Wisconsin has also stated his desire to divide the comprehensive legislation into two separate components.

However, as Jonathan Allen mentions earlier, when it really boils down to it, doubtful Republican senators might struggle to oppose the president and his policies.

An additional complication is that any amendments made by the Senate would need to be reviewed again by the House before Republican legislators can forward the legislation to President Trump’s office, with their aim being to accomplish this by early July.

— Adam Wollner

That concludes all political news from our desk for today. This newsletter was put together by Adam Wollner and Ben Kamisar.

If you have comments — whether positive or negative — send them our way via email.

politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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