UFC Vegas 107


happens this weekend (Sat., May 31 2025) inside UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The


ESPN+


-streamed main event has a clash of

Top 5

-ranked Flyweights with

Maycee Barber

vs.

Erin Blanchfield

. Both of these women will be hoping to jump the line at 125 pounds and earn a fight with

reigning champ

,

Valentina Shevchenko

.

The co-main event is

Mateusz Gamrot

vs.

Ludovit Klein

in the Lightweight division. That one has the potential for fireworks with Gamrot trying to escape being a forgotten man at the top of the rankings.

Whew boy, the rest of this card is …. yikes.

Making up the main card is

Billy Ray Goff

vs.

Ramiz Brahimaj

,

Dustin Jacoby

vs.

Bruno Lopes

,

Ketlen Vieira

vs.

Macy Chiasson

and

Zachary Reese

vs.

Dusko Todorovic

.

The “Prelims” undercard is headlined by

Jafel Filho

vs.

Allan Nascimento

. The “Prelims” also include

Trevin Giles

vs.

Andreas Gustafsson

and

Kurt Holobaugh

vs.

Jordan Leavitt

.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Barber vs. Blanchfield” and all the other bouts on the card …


UFC Vegas 107 Main Card Money Line Odds


Maycee Barber (+195) vs. Erin Blanchfield (-238)

Since back-to-back losses to

Roxanne Modafferi

and

Alexa Grasso

, Barber has won six straight. Among those wins are an impressive technical knockout over

Amanda Ribas

(see it


here


) and decisions over

Katlyn Cerminara

and

Andrea Lee

.

Blanchfield

’

s only loss in UFC was to

Manon Fiorot

, by decision, last year. Around that loss she has beaten

Rose Namajunas

,

Taila Santos

and

Jessica Andrade

(by submission — see it


here


). Her only other pro loss was to

Tracy Cortez

, by split decision, back in Invicta.

Blanchfield is a big favorite in this fight and that’s because of the strength of her ground game. She’s a smothering presence on the ground and her submission game is very dangerous. Against Namajunas, she went position over submission and was able to dominate a couple of rounds by staying on top of the former champion.

I don’t know if Barber is going to be able to do much against Blanchfield on the ground. Her best chance of winning this fight is preventing the fight from ever going there. That’s a tough ask in a five-round fight (something Barber has never experienced before).

Barber is decent on the feet (she TKO’d

Gillian Robertson

at the beginning of her UFC career), but her striking finishes usually happen on the ground. I don’t think she’s going to get any top position on Blanchfield on this fight. It’s hard to see Barber getting a technical knockout standing against Blanchfield, who is good defensive striker. I think Barber’s liveliness on the feet might get her an early round or two, but I just can’t see her getting away from Blanchfield’s clinches and body locks.

If Barber were to win, we’d likely see an exciting fight along the way. However, unfortunately, I think we’re in for a long grinding affair that ends with Blanchfield’s hand being raised.

The round total for this one is 4.5, the odds on that is -230, so Vegas is very confident that this one goes the distance.

Blanchfield by decision -115. She’s +380 by submission. Barber to win by decision is +450. Barber to win by KO/TKO is +500.

I think there is a chance that Blanchfield does get a submission, but not enough for me to take the under. I’m just going to be boring and take her on the moneyline.


Best bet: Erin Blanchfield moneyline (-238)


Mateusz Gamrot (-155) vs. Ludovit Klein (+130)

This is an interesting match-up and,

given how close Gamrot has been to the title picture at Lightweight

, I’m surprised this isn’t our main event on Saturday.

Gamrot, a former KSW champion, shot himself in the foot in his last fight, dropping a split decision to

Dan Hooker

and losing all the momentum he had gained with three straight wins.

Gamrot tried to let his wrestling do the talking against Hooker, but he let himself get too touched up early in the fight. And that made his wrestling less effective than he would have hoped. Before that fight, Gamrot was saying he could earn a title shot with a win.

In retrospect, that all sounds very silly.

His three-fight win streak included a dominant decision over the ghost of

Rafael dos Anjos

, an injury induced win over

Rafael Fiziev

and split decision over the since-retired

Jalin Turner

. Before that, he was decisioned by

Beneil Dariush

. And before that, he won a decision over

Arman Tsarukyan

in a fight many people scored for Tsarukyan.

Klein is on a seven-fight undefeated streak. Among his wins are a decision over

Ignacio Bahamondes

(who is a very hot name in the division right now). His other wins aren’t terribly impressive, they include decisions over

Roosevelt Roberts

and

Thiago Moises

.

Gamrot is going to have a lot of size over Klein in this fight. He’s going to try and make that count with a wrestle-mugging performance. The challenge for Klein will be, can he rough up Gamrot like Hooker did in the time between takedown attempts?

Klein has a 91 percent takedown defense on paper. Though, he’s never faced someone in UFC with a dedicated takedown-heavy offense like Gamrot. I also don’t think Klein has a high enough output to wear down Gamrot. He lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute (Hooker lands 5.03).

I think we could be headed to a boring decision win for Gamrot with lots of him being a size bully against the cage. I think Klein might be able to stay on his feet for large portions of the fight, but not be in a position where he can throw his clean combos.

I’ll take Gamrot by decision, since he seems allergic to finishes.


Best bet: Mateusz Gamrot by decision (-120)


Billy Ray Goff (-340) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+270)

This was supposed to be

Oban Elliott

vs.

Ramiz Brahimaj

. That would have been the best fight on the card, given that Elliott looks like a very good prospect. Brahimaj is good, too, though. He proved that with his blistering finish over

Mickey Gall

last time out (see it


here


).

Goff, meanwhile, was preparing to fight on this card anyway. His original opponent

Seok Hyun Ko

fell out due to visa issues. Goff lost a decision, in a “

Fight of the Night,

” to

Trey Waters

in his last bout.

These guys are both great strikers and this match-up might live up to what I was hoping for with Elliott vs. Brahimaj. I’m quite surprised to see Goff as such a heavy favorite, though.

Goff throws a ton of heat and has good wrestling to back it up. Brahimaj was rag-dolled by

Themba Gorimbo

last year, so perhaps the oddsmakers think we’ll see Goff taking Brahimaj down a bunch in this one.

I have a feeling we’re going to get a brawl on the feet out of these two. If that happens, I think this is a very close fight to call. I think Brahimaj is better than the oddsmakers are making him out to be here. You can get plus money on him plus the points, so that’s where I’m going to go.


Best bet: Ramiz Brahimaj +3.5 (+140)


Dustin Jacoby (-185) vs. Bruno Lopes (+154)

Jacoby has been very up and down in the last few years. He’s 2-4 in his last six and he’s coming off a late kn ockout win over

Vitor Petrino

(see that


here


). That fight was dreadful leading up to that moment. Before that he was starched by

Dominick Reyes

(see it

here

) and took a decision over

Alonzo Menifield

.

Lopes, on the flipside, took a very forgettable decision over

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

in his proper UFC debut in January.

I think Jacoby will have too much on the feet for Lopes. He’s got a slight reach advantage and he lands over five significant strikes a minute, compared to the 2.9 Lopes lands. Lopes used his wrestling to get past Gadzhiyasulov, but Jacoby has decent-ish takedown defense (62 percent) and has a lot of experience defending against the cage and getting himself back into open space.

I think this could be as boring as the Jacoby vs. Petrino fight, but maybe without the big finish. The round total is set for 2.5 rounds. I’ll take the over just in case Lopes is able to pin Jacoby down for longer than I’m expecting.


Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-110)


Zachary Reese (-275) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+200)

Todorovic shouldn’t be doing this anymore, certainly not at this level. The once exciting prospect is now 3-5 in UFC with all but one loss coming via stoppage. Last time out he was brutalized by

Mansur Abdul-Malik

(see it


here


). That first round loss came after Todorovic had been out for a year after suffering a knee injury against

Christian Leroy Duncan

. Before the injury he was finished by

Chidi Njokuani

and

Punahele Soriano

.

Reese, on the other hand, was finished by

Azamat Bekoev

in January (see it


here


). Bekoev made it abundantly clear he’s a name to watch after he destroyed

Ryan Loder

earlier this month. Reese claims Bekoev got away with some shots to the back of the head during their fight.

Before that loss, Reese treated

Jose Medina

like a punching bag in a unanimous decision win. And before that he put away

Julian Marquez

in just 20 seconds (see it


here


).

I’ve never been sold on Reese as a high level KO artist. He racked up KO wins against cans on the regional scene, but couldn’t put the awful Medina away. However, I think he’s going to look like a killer against the shot Todorovic (who is still just 31 years-old). I think he’s going to lay him out with a flying knee in the first round. Then we’ll get excited about Reese again and then he’ll lose, again.


Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+145)


Ketlen Vieira (-105) vs. Macy Chiasson (-115)

Vieira lost to

Kayla Harrison

last time out. Though,

she wasn’t smashed

by the current number one contender. She came out of that fight with a bit of a moral victory, having made Harrison look very underwhelming. Before that she took a decision over

Pannie Kianzad

. Vieira is now 8-4 in UFC. In addition to Harrison, her losses are to

Raquel Pennginton

,

Yana Santos

(after missing weight) and

Irene Aldana

(by knockout — see it


here


).

Chiasson — a former
TUF
winner — is 8-3 in UFC. She’s coming off a technical knockout (cut) win over

Mayra Bueno Silva

and a submission over

Pannie Kianzad

. She won “Performance of the Night” bonuses for both those fights. Her UFC losses are to

Irene Aldana

(by upkick — see it


here


),

Raquel Pennington

and

Lina Lansberg

(

remember her?

).

This is a pretty close fight between two experienced and durable fighters. The key difference is likely Chiasson’s wrestling and subsequent ground-and-pound. Vieira was able to hold Harrison to two of eight takedown attempts. However, when she did get taken down, she couldn’t get back up.

Harrison just laid on Vieira when she got her down. Chiasson is a way more active ground fighter. If she gets Vieira down, I think she could hurt her and slice her up with those sharp elbows.

If Vieira is able to keep the fight standing, I don’t fancy her chances there much. either. She has a negative significant striking differential, landing just 2.92 a minute and absorbing 3.9. Chiasson lands 3.77 and absorbs 2.79. Chiasson also has a four-inch reach advantage.


Best bet: Macy Chiasson moneyline (-115)


UFC Vegas 107 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds


Allan Nascimento (-155) vs. Jafel Filho (+130)

Chute Boxe’s Nascimento submitted

Carlos Hernandez

in his last fight back in 2023. Since then, he’s had four bouts fall through. Three of those are because of him pulling out. Among those are fights with

Sumudaerji

and

Tim Elliott

.

Nova Uniao’s

Jafel Filho

has been out since last March. In his last fight, he submitted

Ode’ Osbourne

in the first round (see it


here


). That’s quite impressive given how Osbourne has looked lately. Filho also has a submission over

Daniel Barez

. His only UFC loss is to

Muhammad Mokaev

, by submission (see it


here


) in his debut.

This is a hot grappling match. These guys have 25 submission wins between them. We might get treated to some exciting exchanges on the ground. Or, these two might cancel each other out there and instead give us 15 minutes of kickboxing.

The round total for this one has been set at 2.5 rounds. I like the over here at -166. BJJ skills have improved in MMA, on a whole, making it hard for everyone but the true elite grapplers to get submissions on UFC level fighters. In this fight, where both guys are so good on the ground, I don’t think we’re going to see a fight-ending submission.


Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-166)


Kurt Holobaugh (+170) vs. Jordan Leavitt (-205)

Holobaugh dropped a unanimous decision to

Alexander Hernandez

in his last fight in March. It was closer than the scores would tell you, though. Before that, he took a decision over

Kaynan Krushewsky

(a Fighting Nerd who loses and thus doesn’t get included in the hype around that camp).

Leavitt, meanwhile, is coming off a first round submission loss to

Chase Hooper

. Before that, he finished

Victor Martinez

. And before that, he was submitted by

Paddy Pimblett

(see it


here


).

Holobaugh turns 40 this year, 11 years older than Leavitt.

Leavitt will look to win this fight on the ground and he’s got a great shot at doing that. Holobaugh’s takedown defense is a below average 39 percent. Leavitt’s accuracy is an atrocious 25 percent, but I think his higher level of recent competition can be blamed for that.

Holobaugh has only been submitted once in his career, an armbar at the hands of

Shane Burgos

. I think he’s experienced and well-rounded enough to prevent Leavitt being able to style on him on the ground. However, I do see most of this fight featuring Holobaugh defending positions and that should spell a decision win for Leavitt.


Best bet: Jordan Leavitt moneyline (-205)


Trevin Giles (+145) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (-175)

Giles is a short notice replacement in this fight, coming in for

Jeremiah Wells

. His back is against the wall right now. He’s on a three fight losing streak, though it’s quite excusable when you look at his level of competition. Last time out he lost a decision to

Mike Malott.

Before that, he was KO’d by

Carlos Prates

(see it


here


). And before that he was submitted by

Gabriel Bonfim

(see it


here


).

He has four more losses in his UFC career. Those include TKO losses to

Michael Morales

and

Dricus Du Plessis

! Giles has really been through the wood-chipper at Welterweight.


Gustafsson

, conversely, has one
Contender Series
win to his name, a knockout via knee against

Pat Pytlik

. He was supposed to debut in January against

Preston Parsons

, but withdrew.

This fight is a Catchweight at 180 pounds.

I’m kind of liking Giles in this one.

Usually when someone has poor results in UFC (like Giles’ 7-7 record and three losses by T/KO) you’d expect their stat sheet to be a horror show, with terrible striking defense and differential, but that’s not the case here.

Giles lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.39 for a moderate positive sig. strike differential. That on it’s own isn’t that impressive. However, when you consider he’s been able to bank a positive number there despite fights with Morales, Prates, Du Plessis, etc., I think that deserves some respect.

He’s also been able to maintain a 58 percent defense against sig. strikes. I think this tells us that Giles is not a bad fighter and he’s done okay in a lot of his fights. However, because of who he’s been fighting, every mistake he’s made has been seized upon and ended in disaster for him.

I don’t think Gustafsson will be able to make Giles pay like Prates and the others have.

On the contrary, Gustafsson will probably try his luck on the feet with Giles but then look to takeover with his wrestling. Giles is a decent wrestler himself, but I think his experience advantage is going to be very telling here. I think he’s going to be able to keep Gustafsson standing and win the fight on the feet.


Best bet: Trevin Giles moneyline (+145)


Bolaji Oki (-360) ve. Michael Aswell (+285)

Oki was tapped out by guillotine specialist

Chris Duncan

in his last fight back in Sept. 2024 (see it


here


). Before that, he took a split decision over

Timmy Cuamba

.

He was supposed to be fighting

MarQuel Mederos

on Saturday. However, Mederos is out and coming in is

Michael Aswell

. Aswell lost his
Contender Series
fight to

Bogdan Grad

via split decision. Grad looked pretty good in his proper debut, stopping

Lucas Alexander

.

That
Contender Series
loss was last August. Since then, Aswell picked up a win in Fury FC, beating

Dorian Ramos

by decision. In Fury FC, Aswell also went up against

Yadier del Valle

(who looked very good at UFC Vegas 106). Aswell lost by decision to del Valle.

This is a tough spot for Aswell. He usually fights at Featherweight and is going up to Lightweight for this one. Oki is bigger, longer and more experienced at this level.


Best bet: Bolaji Oki moneyline (-360)


Rayanne dos Santos (-265) vs. Alice Ardelean (+215)

Our curtain jerker on Saturday is a match-up of women who are a combined 0-4 in UFC. This really feels like a fight that doesn’t need to happen on a UFC card.

Nevertheless, dos Santos has lost two split decisions in the Octagon (to

Talita Alencar

and

Puja Tomar

). She also has a
Contender Series
loss to

Denise Gomes

.

She didn’t get finished by Gomes

, though, so I guess that’s something.

Ardelean, meanwhile, dropped a split decision to

Shauna Bannon

in her short notice UFC debut. She then lost a unanimous decision to

Melissa Martinez

.

Both women are rather typical low output, low intensity fighters who we see on the Fight Pass early prelims a lot these days.

dos Santos is the better striker in this match up. She’s not miles ahead of Ardelean, though. Ardelean is the better wrestler, but—again—not by a mile. dos Santos has good takedown defense on paper, due to her forcing Alencar to go 1-9 on takedown attempts. Alencar might have had an off night when they fought, though (she’s looked pretty decent since then).

I think Ardelean will be able to match dos Santos on the feet and get the takedowns she needs to earn a split decision win.


Best bet: Alice Ardelean moneyline (+215)


UFC Vegas 107 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 107 card …


Zach Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic Fight to End in the 1st 60 Seconds of Round 1 (+550)

I worry for Dusko Todorovic in this fight. I think he’s been hurt too much, too soon, in his career. Zachary Reese is a feast or famine fighter and I think his long striking is going to feast on a slow Todorovic for an early knockout.


Erin Blanchfield to win by submission in Round 1 (+1400)

This is wishful thinking. Maybe Blanchfield is able to catch Barber cold and get her down in the early moments of the fight. Then, when they’re nice an dry, she might be able to control her exactly how she wants and get an early rear naked choke. I’d rather that than five rounds of tepid kickboxing and grinding against the cage.


Trevin Giles to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+2000)

I think Giles is a live dog in his match-up with Gustafsson. I’m imagining Giles getting taken down and pushed against the fence for the first two rounds and then, in the third, with his UFC career on the line, he uncorks something that puts Gustafsson down.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.



MMAmania.com


will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 107 fight card


RIGHT HERE


, starting with the


ESPN+


“Prelims” undercard bouts at

6 p.m. ET

, followed by the remaining main card balance on


ESPN+


at

9 p.m. ET

.


To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 107 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive



here



.