Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain stable.

slide

On most topics, recent polling conducted by The Economist and YouGov throughout the U.S., concluded between May 9th and 12th, indicates that 51% believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, compared to just 45% who hold a favorable view of the country.

his job as president

Regarding inflation and shop prices, merely 35% agree with how he has managed this policy.

Trump seems to be scoring particularly badly with young voters. Around 62% of young people (18 to 29s) have an unfavourable opinion of the president, compared with 53% of the over-65s.

In the meantime, the Trump administration keeps moving forward with its plans.

pursue an agenda

To shut down, or restrict, much of the media he views as against him.

Funding for national public service radio NPR and television PBS, as well as the global news service Voice of America, is under threat. Some national news outlets are under investigation by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for their coverage.

In a speech in March, Trump

said broadcasters

CNN and MSNBC, and some newspapers he didn’t name “literally write 97.6% bad about me”. He added: “It has to stop. It has to be illegal.”

The Trump administration evidently views the media’s role as crucial for garnering and maintaining public backing. They have implemented measures to alter how the White House is covered in the press—including through restrictions on which journalists may participate.

White House press pool

.

About seven in ten members of

the American public

They are keeping up with the latest developments regarding the Trump administration through the news. Consequently, it becomes intriguing to examine how the press impacts Trump’s public approval ratings. Valuable perspectives on this subject can be gleaned from the extensive U.S. Cooperative Election Study carried out throughout last year’s presidential race.

The survey indicated that 57% of Americans had tuned into TV news within the last 24 hours. Approximately

81% had utilized social media

during the same period, but only 20% had used it to comment on politics.

There is a lot of attention being paid to

fake news

On the internet, which is contributing to polarization in the U.S., but when it pertains to political news, television coverage remains highly significant for the majority of Americans.

The survey queried participants regarding the television news networks they followed, revealing that Fox News led with 47% of the audience. In second place was ABC with 37%, while CBS and CNN shared third position at 35% each.

Fox News

is Trump’s preferred television network, featuring its right-wing populist stance and consistent delivery of pro-Trump news stories.


The connection between supporters of Donald Trump and viewership of Fox News during the 2024 U.S. presidential election:

Author graph derived from Cooperative Election Study 2024 data.

CC BY

The Cooperative Election Study included 60,000 participants, offering ample sample sizes for all 50 states. There was significant variation in votes for Trump among different states; he garnered support from just 34% of voters in Maryland as opposed to

72% in Wyoming

The Electoral College officially determines the outcome of presidential elections, which relies on state-level votes—thus, examining balloting from this perspective can offer significant insights.

The connection between watching Fox News and Trump’s vote share can be seen in the chart above. It varies from 21% who watched the channel in Vermont to 60% in West Virginia.

Vermont is represented in Congress by Senator Bernie Sanders, who

self-described socialist

from a radical political tradition, and only 32% voted for Trump there. In contrast, West Virginia is part of the rust belt of impoverished states hit by deindustrialisation and the decline of the coal mining industry, and 71% voted for Trump there.

We can use a

regression model

(which looks at the relationship between variables) to predict support for Trump using key measures that drive the vote share for Trump in each state. The model uses three variables to predict the results with 95% accuracy, which means while not perfect, it gives a very accurate prediction of Trump’s vote.

Not surprisingly, partisanship – that is, the percentage of registered Republicans in each state – is one of the key metrics. In addition, ideology – the percentage of respondents who say they are conservatives – is another.

Perhaps even more strikingly, the third significant indicator is the viewership of

Fox News

. The relationship between watching the channel and voting for Trump is very strong at the state level. Also, the more time people spend watching the channel, the more likely they are to have voted for Trump.


Influence of major elements on Trump’s voting in the 2024 U.S. presidential election:

Author based on data from the Cooperative Election Study

CC BY

The chart assesses how viewing Fox News correlates with various elements and measures each state’s level of backing for Trump in 2024. A value of 1.0 indicates a variable perfectly predicts votes for Trump, whereas a rating of 0 signifies an absolute lack of predictive power regarding his support.

Therefore, the key factor in predicting a vote for Trump was the prevalence of conservatism within a state, with the second being the proportion of registered Republican voters, and the third being regular viewership of Fox News. Having high scores across these three aspects indicated stronger backing for Trump.

To demonstrate this point, 45% of Texans identified as conservatives, 33% were registered Republicans, and 51% regularly watched Fox News. According to these metrics, the model forecasted that approximately 57% would support Trump. Indeed, 56% cast their votes for him in Texas during the 2024 election. Thus, although the prediction wasn’t entirely accurate, it was remarkably precise.

We could use an analogous predictive model to anticipate Senator Kamala Harris’s vote share across different states. For her predictions, achieving 95% accuracy would require us to consider four key factors: the proportion of registered Democrats, the number of self-identified liberals, the presence of moderate voters, as well as the level of Fox News viewership within each state.

Unsurprisingly, in Harris’s instance, the connection between watching Fox News and casting votes shows a strong inverse correlation (correlation = -0.64). As viewership increased, support for Harris decreased.

Years ago, the

“fairness doctrine”

Used to require US broadcasters to impartially present various perspectives on contentious issues in their programming. Individuals running for public office had the right to equal broadcast time.

However, the FCC eliminated this rule in 1987, which resulted in an era where certain broadcasters have become

far more partisan

The FCC ruling came after a phase of discussion and opposition towards the fairness doctrine. It was ultimately abolished during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, as he—a Republican leader who served as an inspiration—supported this change.

Project 2025

– the document that in turn appears to be inspiring the Trump government’s policy agenda.

Once the Trump era concludes, Democratic incumbents will be tasked with rebuilding American institutions that this presidency has undermined. Should they wish to address the polarization within U.S. politics, reinstating the fairness doctrine could also prove necessary.

Had it not been removed in the first place, it is possible that Harris would have won the 2024 presidential election, since Fox News would not exist in its present form. Whatever happens next, the US media is likely to play an important role.


Paul Whiteley

, Professor, Department of Government,

University of Essex

This article is republished from

The Conversation

Under a Creative Commons license. Refer to

original article

.

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