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The American fascination—or perhaps more accurately, the U.S. media’s fixation—with the electoral process that led to the selection of a new pope.

Leo XIV

It has been quite intense. Overall, it’s been fantastic.

#content

. I mean, Cardinal

Pizzaballa

?

How could they resist

?

The unexpected outcome of electing the first ever American pope provided a stunning ending that even Hollywood couldn’t rival.

For politics watchers, it was especially appealing since a papal conclave is a perfect example of a high-stakes election inside a closed system. The Roman Catholic Church chooses its leader the way American political parties used to choose their presidential nominees at conventions. The electorate is tiny, supercharged by its members’ own considerations, deeply invested in the outcome and engaged in intense bargaining. Things get weird and outcomes become very hard to predict. Sometimes you get


Abe Lincoln


, sometimes you get


Franklin Pierce


, but there’s no pollster to tell you what to expect.

It’s all understandably fascinating to Americans who swell and bob on an ocean of odds, projections, forecasts and simulations about everything from college sports to presidential elections.

Certainly, this has also served as an opportunity for American Catholics to contemplate the trajectory of their church and their role within it. Even with considerable zeal exhibited by the more conservative faction of the U.S. arm of the Church, exemplified by figures such as the Vice President,

Vance

, the liberal-leaning Pope

Francis

seems to be popular with U.S. Catholics, with three-quarters of respondents

in a recent poll

indicating they believed he guided the church correctly.

Even if this figure is elevated due to positive sentiments toward the recently deceased Pope, it does not indicate significant opposition to a more progressive pontiff. It might be logical to assume that the most devoted and active believers in the U.S. tend to adhere more closely to traditional and orthodox beliefs both politically and theologically; however, we do not see evidence of an overwhelmingly far-right membership base. The authority of church teachings appears stable, including within the frequently contentious American faction. Only time will tell whether Chicago’s native son Leo will bring unity or exacerbate divisions among fellow Americans who share his religion, yet undoubtedly, it will mark a period filled with deep reflection for and from American Catholics.

But that is mostly for them to decide. But there will, of course, be implications for the nation’s broader political and civic life. A very consistent

20 percent of all American adults

consider themselves members of the church — more than 50 million people — making it second only to evangelical Protestantism (23 percent) among U.S. religious sects. The number of Catholics is roughly double the number of the mainline Protestants who once dominated America’s public life.

That’s quite a significant number of Catholics, even though their proportion of the overall population has decreased from when it was at its highest point.

of about 25 percent 60 years ago

The shares have remained notably steady since around 2010, despite declines seen among other Christian denominations which shifted towards “nones”—individuals with no religious affiliations at all. However, compared to sixty years ago, Catholicism might no longer hold significant importance as an indicator of political demographics.

In earlier times, American Catholics were not entirely uniform, yet Catholicism served as a unifying factor for various immigrant communities. Beginning with Irish and German migrants in the mid-1800s, numerous newcomers carried their faith to an predominantly Protestant nation. This pattern persisted with those arriving through Ellis Island around the early 1900s, who often came from South and East Europe.

Certainly, the rift between Democrats and Republicans in the North throughout and following the Civil War was largely shaped by tensions between newcomers and natives, which frequently corresponded to conflicts between Catholics and Protestants. In the 1850s, groups like the Know-Nothings emerged as significant forces aimed at curbing the rising influence of Catholics politically. Similarly, the resurgence of the Northern Ku Klux Klan in the 1910s and 1920s further exemplified this trend toward mobilizing against perceived Catholic threats. Even policies such as Prohibition reflected underlying biases against immigrants and Catholics. Some Republicans portrayed Democrats as advocates for “liquor and papistry” and hinted at their association with former Confederate leaders within the Southern wing of the Democratic Party known for their stance on rebellion.

Over the following two generations, beginning with

Al Smith

In 1928, Catholic voters generally supported the Democratic Party, and Democrats focused on attracting this Catholic demographic. This alignment was not primarily due to religious doctrine but rather because Democrats represented the interests of the working class, which comprised many immigrants along with their offspring and subsequent generations. Similarly,

Andrew Jackson

In the 1820s, the party underwent a significant transformation thanks to a massive demographic change led by numerous Scotch-Irish Presbyterians. During this period, religious affiliations were more a result of migration patterns rather than doctrinal influences.

As the offspring of those immigrant groups ascended the social and economic ladder and left their traditional ethnic neighborhoods, the link between being Catholic and supporting the Democrats became less pronounced.


Exit polls show

us that in 2024,

President Trump

secured Catholic votes with 59 percent compared to 39 percent for the former Vice President.

Kamala Harris

, a stunning reversal from former

President Biden

’s 5 point advantage over Trump in 2020 — which was a reversal of Trump’s 6 point advantage over

Hillary Clinton

with

Catholics in 2016

. When we look closer, though, we see that the winner of the national popular vote in every election this century has also won the Catholic vote. That’s

very different from the middle of the 20th century

, when three-quarters or more of Catholics voted Democratic, even in losing elections for the blue team.

The 25-point shift between 2020 and 2024 stands out more prominently compared to all other trends witnessed this century, where Catholic backing has generally mirrored the broader populace’s stance quite steadily. While President Biden’s personal ties to the faith might play some role here, could there also be larger forces at work influencing Catholic voters’ preferences?


Look at these data

According to data from the Pew Research Center regarding America’s Catholic community, what we observe is that even though their proportion within the overall population remains steady,
within
The Catholic community is experiencing significant shifts in region and demographics. Currently, there are two primary groups within American Catholicism: older, predominantly white Catholics located in the Northeast and Midwest, contrasted with younger Catholics who are more likely to be Hispanic and Asian in the Southern and Western parts of the country.

The focal point for America’s Catholic community has been shifting rapidly towards southern and western regions. This movement spans from cities like New York and Boston to those such as Detroit and Chicago, and more recently includes places like Los Angeles and Houston. Many have presumed that this trend toward a younger, more racially diverse congregation within the Church would lead to increased liberal tendencies—a viewpoint shared by Democrats during the 2000s and 2010s regarding the nation overall.

The 59% of Catholics who voted for Trump were merely 4 percentage points behind the 63% of Protestants supporting the Republican candidate. This discrepancy might simply reflect transient discontent similar to what led many young and minority voters, particularly men, to move away from the Democratic party in 2024. In 2028, we could revert to historical norms, potentially seeing Catholic voters align more closely with overall public sentiment.

However, it could also indicate the start of a pattern where working-class offspring and grandchildren of immigrants align themselves with the same religious institutions and political parties. Although Catholics compete heavily with evangelical Protestants for the loyalty of Hispanic Americans, this situation does not suggest a likely resurgence of support for Democrats among these voters.

If these shifts persist with Republicans appealing more to those who are less well-off and Democrats gravitating towards wealthier suburban areas, maybe someday we could witness the resurgence of a significant Catholic voting block, but this time aligning with the Republican side.

President Rubio, preceding President Ocasio-Cortez, maybe? Although we’re far from this scenario, signs of the beginning transition are evident.

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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION


Trump Job Performance


Average Approval:

42.8%


Average Disapproval:

54.2%


Net Score:

-11.4 points


Change from last week:

+1.4 points


Change from last month:

-4.2 points

[Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters: 42% approve – 53% disapprove; NYT/Siena: 42% approve – 54% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 42% approve – 53% disapprove; NewsNation: 44% approve – 56% disapprove; Fox News: 44% approve – 55% disapprove]


Trust craters among Americans with lower levels of education, income

% who believe that most people can be trusted

By education level

  • Less than high school or only high school completed: 24%
  • Bachelor’s: 44%
  • Postgrad: 52%

By income group

  • Household income <$50k: 25%
  • $50k–$100k: 35%
  • $100k+: 46%

[

A Pew Research Center study of American adults from 2024

]


ALONGSIDE: WALKING IT


The Atlantic

Shortly after 8 AM on a spring morning, 2,000 feet beneath the edge of the Grand Canyon,

Nate Chamberlain

, dressed in chaps and cowboy boots, exited the post office in Supai, Arizona, holding the final batch of morning mail. … After climbing onto the saddle of the lead mule, he nudged the animal forward with a tap of his spurs and started down the dusty path leaving the settlement. This marked the start of what could be considered America’s most distinctive U.S. Postal Service route—one of the few remaining where mail is delivered by mule. … Supai, the sole community within the territory of the Havasupai Tribe, ranks among the nation’s most isolated towns. … The weekly mule caravan covers an arduous 16 miles through steep canyons over a period of about six hours each day for five days per week, symbolizing the fullest extent of the USPS commitment to ‘provide postal service to every corner.’ Delivering mail here requires not just logistical prowess but also exceptional riding skills and precise foot placement. … Despite these challenges, even today in Supai,…

Lynanne Palmer

Put it this way: ‘Life revolves around the post office.’


PRIME CUTS


Green with worry: Republicans anxious about Georgia Senate contest

:

The Hill

Republican senators are dismissing outspoken Rep.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

(R-GA) about enteringnext year’sGeorgiaSenaterace, expressing worries thatsomeofthe ‘outlandish’ statementsshehas madecould potentiallydamageher chancesin a generalelectioncontestagainstvulnerableDemocraticSenator.

Jon Ossoff

. … Greene says she is looking seriously at either running for governor or for Senate in 2026. … GOP senators acknowledge she would have a good shot at winning the nomination given her national prominence and solid standing with many supporters of President Trump. … Those chances got a boost this week when Gov.

Brian Kemp

(R), Senate Majority Leader

John Thune

’s (R-S.D.) top recruit for the race, said he won’t challenge Ossoff. … If [Greene] ran for the Senate in 2026, Greene would have to be competitive in swing counties outside of Atlanta, such as Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry.”


The self-declared ‘MAGA warrior’ initiates a challenge against Ossof.


Atlanta Journal-Constitution

: “U.S. Rep.

Buddy Carter

emerged as the first notable Republican to enter the contest against U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff, kicking off his campaign on Thursday through a television advertisement that portrays him as a supporter of pro-

Donald Trump

‘Make America Great Again fighter.’ … Carter outlined his approach with an initial advertisement that criticized Ossof’s position on immigration and condemned the Democrat’s vote against a Republican-backed proposal to prevent transgender girls from participating in women’s sports. … For years, Carter has been preparing for a possible run for the Senate. In 2021, he put together a campaign staff to take on U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock

However, it eventually passed. … As a previous mayor of the Savannah suburb of Pooler, Carter established himself as a representative dedicated to constituents, skilled in grassroots politics, and one who has cultivated strong connections within both the traditional and MAGA factions of his political party.


Andy Beshear’s campaign for 2028 is already off to an early start.

:

Politico

: “

Andy Beshear

Isn’t merely stating that he ‘might think about’ running for president; instead, he’s aggressively setting the stage for a possible 2028 bid. He’s holding private meetings with financiers, hosting a podcast, and frequently appearing at major national gatherings. A previous communication director from Kamala Harris’s team is currently advising him. … Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who has earned widespread popularity during his two terms, stands out due to his demonstrated capability to secure victories in regions where Trump holds significant support even when campaigning openly as a Democratic candidate. … This strategy proved successful.

Jimmy Carter

and

Bill Clinton

, who Beshear sometimes invites comparisons with, but that was many political lifecycles prior. Recently, Democratic governors from rural states attempting this approach include Montana’s

Steve Bullock

and Colorado’s

John Hickenlooper

, never breached the single-digit polling floor of the 2020 Democratic primary.”


Gallego, too, starts swing-state tour as 2028 speculation heats up

:

Politico

: “

Ruben Gallego

is setting off to a key battleground state to speak with voters this week, a sign the Arizona senator may have higher ambitions as some Democrats float him as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. … Gallego will headline a May 10 town hall in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a pivotal bellwether that President Donald Trump flipped in 2024. … Gallego is a rising star in the Democratic Party who won a state in 2024 that Trump carried in part by overperforming among Latino voters compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris. … Gallego grew up poor with a single mother, eventually making it to Harvard, where he worked part-time as a janitor, and enlisted in the Marine Corps and served in the Iraq War.”


Finally, the GOP candidate admits defeat in the North Carolina judicial election.

:

AP

: “The Republican challenger for a North Carolina Supreme Court seat conceded last November’s election on Wednesday to Democratic incumbent

Allison Riggs

, two days following a federal judge’s decision that indicated possibly thousands of contested ballots challenged by

Jefferson Griffin

Must stay included in the final count. … Griffin’s choice paves the way for Riggs to be formally elected to an eight-year tenure as an associate justice in one of the country’s ten largest states. … ‘North Carolina can now move past the 2024 election,’ said Democratic Governor.

Josh Stein

posted on the social media platform X. … Although The Associated Press announced more than 4,800 victors in the 2024 general election, the North Carolina Supreme Court contest remained the final unresolved race nationwide.”


SHORT ORDER

As Republicans threaten to release the Hur interview, Biden brings on additional public relations staff members—

Politico

Former Rep.

Tim Ryan

floats 2026 Ohio gubernatorial bid—

Cleveland

DeWine rushes to refute Ramaswamy’s endorsement by the Ohio GOP

NBC News

AOC declines offer to take over Connolly’s seat on Oversight Committee

The Hill


TABLE TALK


Quarter-length zip jackets for the workshop

For those studying business among us today, I urge you not just to employ your abilities in financial speculation, but rather to utilize your impressive skills to construct the steel frameworks and lay the foundations of new American factories, industrial sites, shipbuilding facilities, and perhaps entire cities.
President

Donald Trump

urges new college grads to take up manual labor while

speaking

at the University of Alabama commencement last week.


MAILBAG


Can President Trump find ways to increase his approval ratings?

—
Kurt Perleberg

, Williamstown, Ky.

Mr. Perleberg,

There are numerous methods! While reclaiming all the ground he has lost since taking office may not be simple, it is still achievable.

By simply announcing success in the “Liberation Day” tariff strategy and claiming that he resolved the issue, Trump might boost his approval ratings above what they were when he first assumed office. The sense of relief would be so significant that similar to how markets have surged following Trump’s steps back from import duties, this surge in support would exceed earlier peaks.

I anticipate witnessing increases in support for Trump and the Republican Party as various trade agreements come into play.

The situation regarding immigration policy is similar. Should the president declare that he has instructed his staff to swiftly adhere to both the specifics and intentions of the Supreme Court’s decisions on deportations lacking proper legal procedures, his approval ratings would likely see a significant increase.

However, if the query is about whether Trump could enhance his standing without altering his policies, the response is far less clear-cut. Throughout the Biden presidency, we observed that members of the president’s party often claimed that improving “communication” was necessary. This implies that if those facing rising costs and difficulties purchasing homes truly grasped the broader goals of the administration, their objections might subside.

I’m not saying that Trump wouldn’t be helped by more coherent and consistent rhetoric on trade, immigration, and everything else, but only that when voters have a problem with the policies, spin can only take one so far.

One thing that would probably help Trump in that way, though, would probably be to simply be talking and doing
less
. Ubiquity can be helpful in winning elections, and Trump’s gift for dominating news cycle after news cycle certainly helped him keep his base activated and engaged throughout the long 2024 cycle. But once in office, burnout sets in quickly. That was a problem for Trump throughout his first term and seems to be even more the case this time around.

Letting folks take a breath before the next onslaught might help voters to cool off.

All best,

c

You should email us! Write to

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The _____ Nate Moore

During the approximately three years that I’ve had the pleasure of collaborating with my AEI colleague here in America,

Nate Moore

I have added an adjective in this week’s political update to characterize him.

In the invitation extended to you, dear readers, to send us your opinions, inquiries, critiques, amendments, humor, culinary creations, among others, I must have penned at least 150 times: “My associate, the estimable Nate Moore, and I shall be scanning our inboxes for your messages and subsequently featuring the most captivating entries along with my replies herein.”

Each week, I plug in a new adjective to characterize Nate, who has served as your staunch supporter and passionate champion from day one. This practice adds a touch of difficulty for me and embeds a subtle puzzle for attentive readers. It serves as a reminder that behind these messages lies a genuine person reading each email sent. Perhaps awareness of Nate’s excellence encouraged recipients to moderate their heated communications and streamline their thoughts respectfully towards Mr. Moore.

Throughout these years, the extensive list has featured multiple repetitions, yet it also includes a wide array of descriptions such as:

Bold, brave, intrepid, steadfast, diplomatic, industrious, shrewd, valiant, abundant, mindful, grateful, astute, strong, fit and healthy, authorial, admirable, record-breaking, suntanned, well-rested, prepared, sturdy, sharp-sighted, subtle, stylish, upright, educated, ingenious, dedicated, gifted, favorably seasoned, selective, multitasking, beautifully clad in sweaters, curious, illustrated with Currier & Ives prints, full of Christmas spirit, enthusiastic about Yuletide, celebrating holidays, fittingly joyous, fully stocked and traveling, mobile, lacking communication via letters, determined, knitted with cables, timely and frequent, assiduous, informed, conscientious, respectable, spring-like, navigating cross-tabulations, penetrating, skilled at handling Python, wise, dynamic, fantastic, vigilant, wary, sincere, nimble, outdoorsy, greatly lamented, high-demand period, perpetually prepared, painstaking, insightful, persistent, distinctly original, emptied out, wearing tweeds, excellent, evidence-based, tough, proven through experience, praiseworthy, not politically gerrymandered, analytical regarding elections, unwavering.

Nate has embodied various roles, ranging from the lighthearted to the deep. However, at present, he embodies another identity: Mine.
former
Colleague. Following an extensive and remarkable tenure at AEI, Nate is departing for law school, where he’ll encounter arduous challenges and numerous chances to establish his reputation in this vast, wonderful world. A part of me wishes that these experiences might not be quite as enjoyable as our time together has been, yet I’m far more enthusiastic about witnessing how a young man with exceptional talent and admirable character will advance both personally and for the benefit of the nation.

And certainly I am happy that even though we’ve offered our last descriptor for Nate, a new one will remain ever after: Friend.


FOR DESSERT


Hi, roomies:


WLS

:A Chicago resident claims he took an unprecedented step after finding out about supposed squatters occupying his property—he chose to live alongside them. Marco Velazquez owns a home located on the city’s South Side that is currently listed for sale. According to him, his real estate agent brought over a prospective purchaser only to discover individuals already residing within. …Velazquez asserts that a lady identified as Shermaine along with her partner, Codarro, had taken residence at the place, asserting ownership themselves. …He mentions law enforcement informed them that due to present legislation in Illinois, eviction was unfeasible. ‘I stated, “I won’t vacate,”‘ recalled Velazquez. ‘Called up some buddies; we remained through the night knowing this would upset them,’ Velazquez explained. …According to Velazquez, himself, his spouse, and several companions cohabited with these presumed trespassers throughout the evening. ‘They occupied a bedroom while my group kept watch from the sitting area near the entryway,’ recounted Velazquez. ‘The entire duration lasted all night.’

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for
The Hill
and NewsNation, the host of

The Hill Sunday
on NewsNation and The CW

, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report.


Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


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