Jason Corley from Quantus Insights recently highlighted a flaw in American polling that skewed predictions for the 2024 elections. According to his analysis, since 2016, polls have inaccurately projected better-than-actual outcomes for Democrats by about 4.2 percentage points in crucial swing states. This pattern encompasses former President Donald Trump’s wins in various regions as well as Vice President Kamala Harris’ losses even though she was ahead in significant surveys.

Corley stated, “For three successive electoral cycles now, polling data have mirrored not the actual electorate, but rather what the political establishment desires it to be.” He further noted, “This isn’t just about sporadic inaccuracies; these errors are systematic, pointed in one direction, and deeply rooted within the methodologies used in contemporary poll operations.”

The polling methods have originated from underlying structural problems instead of sudden shifts in voter preferences. Over the past years, response rates have dropped from around 20% at the start of the 2000s to merely 5%, causing the poll outcomes to lean towards a more metropolitan and better-educated population segment.

Corley observed, “Once polls indicate a strong lead, voters tend to change their behavior. People who support the predicted frontrunner might decide not to vote. Conversely, those backing the underdog could become disheartened.”

There has been a decline in public faith in polls, as indicated by Gallup, which shows trust dropping from 38% during the early 2000s to merely 22% currently. Corley blames this issue on poll aggregators and media personalities who propagate biased predictions. “These errors aren’t haphazard; they reveal a pattern of prejudice,” he commented.

Corley stated, “Predictions with win probabilities at 70% or 80% rest on shaky grounds—surveys that are biased yet presented through appealing visuals and portrayed as definitive.” He further explained, “This outcome wasn’t due to chance; rather, it stemmed from a particular approach.”

Corley stated, “Polling isn’t simply a technological device; it serves as a civic instrument. Should it falter, it doesn’t just lead astray—it misdirects governance. This can skew strategies, confuse the populace, and erode trust in the validity of elections.”

Corley asserted, “Polling shouldn’t present what we want to believe. Instead, it should enable us to view the nation as it truly is.”

Jennifer White reports on U.S. politics and news for the content partner Modern Newsstand LLC.