If this past weekend in European politics serves as any indication, it shows that the “Trump effect” is indeed present, with its consequences being hard to predict.

On Sunday, three European Union nations—Romania, Poland, and Portugal—held their elections, but the outcomes failed to provide a definitive direction for EU politics moving forward. Nonetheless, these electoral events underscored the increasing impact of the U.S. president on continental affairs.

The varied reactions from electors across the three nations — along with the absence of clear-cut wins for individual parties or candidates in both Portugal and Poland — suggest that the heightened political division unsettling the U.S. over recent years appears to be a worldwide phenomenon, rather than solely an American issue.

Regarding whether President Donald Trump and the “Make America Great Again” movement surrounding him could create equivalents in Europe, the question still remains unanswered.


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“I don’t know if I have a firm answer,” Celia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and head of its Paris office, told ABC News. “At the moment, we are all monitoring what is happening and how this influence can establish itself.”

It’s still quite early,” Belin noted. “We’re witnessing an evolving situation.

Although the full scope of Trump’s influence on European politics remains uncertain, Belin indicated that this effect has become “more pronounced” compared to what it was two years prior.

Trump’s influence — indirect and direct — has given populist movements like Germany’s Alternative for Germany party, Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and Portugal’s far-right Chega party a clear boost, evident in recent elections in each country.

“If I am to compare with two years ago, for example, it is stronger, it is more united, it gives inspiration to a ton of populist nationalist leaders in Europe,” Belin said. “It’s getting stronger. That’s the direction it’s going in right now.”

The surge of discontent that propelled Trump into the Oval Office two times isn’t just an American trend; it varies from one country to another. Issues such as globalization, migration, income disparity, high costs of living, sluggish economic expansion, progressive policies, and questions about national identity are widespread across the Western democracies.

Trump took advantage of those circumstances in the U.S., and right-wing figures in Europe are attempting to follow suit.

Election week in Europe

The outcomes of this week’s elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal indicate that the adaptation of Trumpism into Europe’s political lexicon is still not fully realized.

In Romania, electors chose Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan’s platform which supports Europe, NATO, and Ukraine. Dan secured victory with approximately 54% of the votes.

Dan’s opponent — Trump supporter George Simion, who courted the MAGA movement and even visited the U.S. during his campaign — came up short, though he vowed to continue “our fight for freedom and our great values along with other patriots, sovereignists and conservatives all over the world.”

In Poland, the presidential election saw liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski secure an unexpectedly tight victory in the first round of voting with around 31% of the vote, beating out right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki — who was personally endorsed by Trump — who had 29.5% of the vote.

On June 1, the two contenders will advance to the second round of voting, aiming to attract supporters from smaller candidacies. One notable group consists of those who backed far-right extremist Slawomir Mentzen, who secured third place with 14.8% of the vote.

Piotr Buras, a senior policy fellow at ECFR who leads its Warsaw office, informed ABC News that Trump has had a significant presence throughout the election.

Nawrocki positioned himself as the pro-Trump candidate, supported by members of the Law and Justice party. He criticized Trzaskowski’s Civic Platform party and Prime Minister Donald Tusk, alleging they were damaging Polish-American ties.

Buras mentioned that we previously had a national agreement regarding our stance towards America, where citizens were largely receptive to maintaining strong connections with Washington, D.C. However, he noted that due to the current ideological split within Poland and influenced by the situation in the U.S., as well as President Trump’s strategy toward Europe, Poland now finds itself conflicted over how to proceed with regard to America,” he explained.

Meanwhile, in Portugal, the far-right Chega party achieved an unprecedented 22.6% of the votes, significantly disrupting the longstanding dominance of the nation’s two-party system, despite not being able to surpass the leading center-right coalition known as the Democratic Alliance.

“I won’t cease my efforts until I reach the position of Prime Minister of Portugal,” stated André Ventura, the leader of Chega, who was also one of the international politicians invited to attend Donald Trump’s second inauguration ceremony.

Making Europe great again?

This kind of optimism amidst failure might stem from the solid groundwork being laid by populist parties and contenders across Europe. Throughout the region, extreme right-wing organizations are attracting unprecedented numbers of supporters and taking center stage in political discussions, despite not necessarily holding governmental control.

In the U.K., the right-wing Reform party had a remarkable showing in the May local elections, securing numerous council seats. This success allowed leader Nigel Farage—who has close ties with Trump and the MAGA movement—to announce the conclusion of the longstanding dominance held by Britain’s two main political parties.

During February’s parliamentary elections in Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party turned their increasing support into victory, securing approximately 21% of the votes and becoming the second-biggest force in the Bundestag.

In February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance embarked on his inaugural international journey as part of his new role, traveling to Germany just ahead of an important election. He delivered remarks at the Munich Security Conference on February 14th.

During his address at the yearly security conference, Vance accused Europe of impeding freedom of expression, implying that the event’s choice to exclude AfD members was an act of censorship.



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“In Britain, and across Europe, free speech, I fear, is in retreat,” Vance said. “I believe that dismissing people, dismissing their concerns, or, worse yet, shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy.” Many political analysts considered Vance’s remarks to be a tacit endorsement of AfD from the Trump administration.

And in France, President Emmanuel Macron has thus far held off the persistent challenge for the presidency from far-right leader Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, but he was unable to stop the party from becoming the largest in the National Assembly in 2024. Only a shaky minority government has kept the party out of the prime minister’s office.

The insurgent parties are coordinating. Leaders have increasingly been drawn to American conservative events, such as the Conservative Political Action Conference — the first-ever European installment of which was held in Budapest, Hungary, in 2022.

This year, conservatives convened at the Make Europe Great Again gathering in Madrid in February, an event orchestrated by Spain’s extreme-right political party, VOX.

Buras mentioned whispers suggesting that Vice President JD Vance might participate in an upcoming CPAC gathering scheduled for Poland later in May. This attendance would likely signify backing for Nawrocki. According to Buras, this situation implies potential “intervention or at least influence” coming from the United States.

MAGA blowback

Trump is just as divisive abroad as he is at home. Indeed, polls consistently indicate that many European voters are skeptical of, unsettled by or outright hostile to the American president.

Therefore, there is no assurance that a MAGA affiliation will lead to the rise of foreign populists. For instance, recent elections in Canada and Australia witnessed center-left established parties triumphing over their conservative rivals who attempted to label them as Trump-like.

Belin stated that Trump’s comeback to the White House has energized the anti-populist or anti-nationalist movements. “This provides them with an adversary… To galvanize their supporters, they can use Donald Trump as a kind of scarecrow—the motivational impact works both ways,” he explained.

“It fuels the extremist base and so it excites a lot of people, but it also fuels the other side and it also frightens the middle,” Belin said.